Two PPV’s in a row? Thanks, Paramount!
Last week’s card was solid. If you made me a teacher, I’d give it a respectful B- grade. Though some of the fights weren’t the most entertaining, the stakes were high. And most importantly, we didn’t have to pay $80 to watch. Though we did have to sit through a million and a half ads…
But that’s a story for another day. Onto UFC 325!
This might be the opposite of last weeks card. The stakes aren’t as high, other than the main and co-main event. But I think the violence will be delivered. Excited for this one.
Alexander Volkanovski (-145) vs Diego Lopes (+125)
This one’s been a massive struggle for me to figure out all week.
On one hand, Volkanovski is as cheap as you’ll ever see him sitting at -145. We literally just watched this fight play out a year ago, and Volk outstruck Lopes 158 to 63 on significant strikes. Other than a flash knockdown for Lopes, Volk controlled the entirety of that fight – and Lopes was losing that round up until the knockdown. I think the right score was 49-46 Volk.
So why is he so cheap on the moneyline? Age has to be the deciding factor. Volk hasn’t fought since then, meanwhile Lopes is coming off a TKO victory of Jean Silva. Volk is also 37 years old, while Lopes is 31. So Lopes is improving still, while we’ve likely already seen Volk’s peak.
With all this being said, I’m staying away from this fight. I’m a pretty big fan of both of these two, so my vision my be a little clouded. If Lopes were a jucier ML, I’d be tempted to play him. Sitting back and watching this one unfold.
Dan Hooker (+280) vs Benoit Saint-Denis (-360)
Banger alert.
I bought some Dan Hooker ML at +280. It’s just too tempting. Here’s how I lose: BSD is relentless on the takedowns and smothers Hooker the entire way.
I think that’s entirely possible. And shit, maybe even likely. But at +280, I’ll take the bait.
BSD is there to be hit, man. I’ve seen him take beatings against Moicano and Poirer. Hooker is electric on the feet. I’m hoping he’s able to stuff enough takedowns and put the damage on him. I am a little worried about Hooker taking this fight so soon after he got smashed against Arman… but I’m riding with the Aussie on this one.
I also think there’s two outcomes on this one: The takedowns come easy for BSD and he’s able to fish out a sub, or Hooker batters him on the feat and get’s a TKO/Doctor’s Stoppage. Hoping this one ends early, so I’m also in on ‘Fight Not to Start Round 3 (-136)’. Let’s see some violence.
Bets:
- Dan Hooker ML (+280)
- Fight Not To Start Round 3 (-136)
Rafiel Fiziev (-110) vs Mauricio Ruffy (-110)
Another fight with banger potential.
I grabbed Fiziev ML early in the week at + money (specifically +104). I just think he’s more active with his striking. Ruffy throws dazzling strikes that make your jaw drop – wheel kicks and spinning shit. But other than that, he’s kind of low volume….
And Fiziev is battled tested. This dude’s fought some of the best in the Lightweight division. He’s probably seen a million wheel kicks. I trust that he’ll be able to get out of the way, and put the volume on Ruffy. And for that reason, I’m firing on the ML.
Bets:
- Rafiel Fiziev ML (+104)
Tallison Texiera (-320) vs Tai Tuivasa (+260)
Oof. That was my initial reaction when I saw this fight. This could be so ugly, or it could be fun. I don’t think there’s an in between.
I’ve hardly seen anything out of Texeira. He’s a long, tall, sloppy Heavyweight, who I honestly haven’t seen fight all that much.
On the other side, Tai Tuivasa is also a sloppy Heavyweight. Coming off a 5 fight losing streak and hasn’t fought since August 2024.
No way in hell am I laying the juice on Texeira at -320. Tai has that one punch power to nuke him at any second. But I can’t trust Tai either. I took the bait on a horrific Heavyweight bout last week by backing Derrick Lewis, and I’m scarred, man. I can’t fire on Tai either.
I’m rooting for violence, so I took ‘Fight Not to Start Round 3’ at -500 earlier in the week as a parlay piece.
Bets:
- Fight Not to Start Round 3 (-500)
Quillan Salkilld (-1100) vs Jamie Mullarkey (+650)
Really not that much to be said here, with Salkilld sitting at -1100.
I can see why he’s the heavy favorite. I’ve watch Mullarkey’s chin fail him so many times. And Quillan is coming off one of the nastiest KO’s I’ve ever seen.
So we’ll probably watch another KO here. I’m not tossing this in any of my parlays for two reasons:
- It’s -1100 so the juice ain’t worth the squeeze.
- Mullarkey’s been around the block. That vet lesson might be coming.
Staying away here, but expecting a KO.
Prelims
The prelims are pretty meh compared to the main card to be honest. But I do have a few thoughts.
First, whenever I get the chance to fade a Tafa brother, I will. It’s greasy, but Billy Elekana ML at -270 will be a parlay piece for me this week.
Second, whenever I get the chance to fade Cody Brundage, I take it. I could loose this if Brundage get’s another DQ win. But if you take away his DQ wins, he’s 2-7-1 in his last 10 fights – with 1 of those wins coming on a Hail Mary powerbomb while he was locked into a triangle. Another greasy one, Cam Rowston ML at -350.
The only other fighter I’m looking to get involved in with is Torrez Finney. Listen. This guy put on one of the most boring fights I’ve ever seen last time out. But his wrestling is insane. That dude is built like a bowling ball. And his opponent, Jakob Malkhoun, is rocking 20% TDD in his UFC career. So Finney ML for me, at plus money!!!
Bets:
- Billy Elekan ML (-270)
- Cam Rowston ML (-350)
- Torrez Finney ML (+127)
Bets
Going to start tracking my success/failures throughout the year. Though I definitely bet less than this, for sake of math I’ll refer to each unit as $100.
So here’s where I’m at this week:
- Rafiel Fiziev ML (+104) – 1 Unit
- Torrez Finney ML (+124) – 1 Unit
- Parlay:
- Billy Elekana ML
- Cam Rowston ML
- Odds (-132)
- 1 Unit
- Parlay:
- Hooker vs BSD Fight Not to Start Round 3
- Tuivasa vs Texeira Fight Not to Start Round 3
- Odds (+100)
- 1 Unit
Fight Predictions:
8 for 11 on the year! Pretty solid start last week.
- Alexander Volkanovski
- Dan Hooker
- Rafael Fiziev
- Tallison Texeira
- Quillan Salkilld
- Billy Elekena
- Cam Rowston
- Torrez Finney
- Oban Elliot
- Kaan Ofli





